Radical
Statistics
Young people’s political
participation - results from a 1996 MORI Omnibus survey
Eldin Fahmy
Introduction
This article reports the results of a re-analysis of data from a 1996 MORI Omnibus Survey on conventional political participation in Britain¹. The analysis attempts to update our understanding of the social and demographic structure of conventional political activity in contemporary Britain.² Using multivariate techniques the article demonstrates the centrality of age as a key determinant of involvement in formal politics. These findings confirm the results of earlier studies which reveal widespread non-participation and political withdrawal amongst young people. Evidence of growing political apathy and cynicism has prompted a concern amongst the New Labour administration for encouraging greater citizen involvement in political life, especially amongst young people. This article argues that initiatives directed at encouraging citizen participation in politics need to encompass a more ambitious set of institutional reforms than those currently envisaged. A more inclusive politics requires the development of new forms of democratic representation if we are to take citizen participation seriously.
Youth and political participation
Young people are less likely to be on the electoral register, or to vote than other age groups. According to M-Power, 20% of 18-25 year olds were not even registered to vote in 1995 (BYC, 1995). The 1997 election saw the lowest turnout of any post-war General Election (71.6%) and young people were amongst those least likely to vote. Analysis of the 1997 British Election Survey data reveals that 40% of 18-24 year olds did not vote in the 1997 General Election (Heath and Jowell, 1997). Multivariate analysis of constituency turnout in the 1997 election shows age to be one of the few social characteristics significantly associated with non-voting even when income, educational and class differences are controlled (Denver and Hands, 1997).
However, a genuinely participatory political culture involves far more than simply the periodic casting of votes. Although there is rather less systematic evidence about the extent of young people’s non-electoral participation, available findings make rather depressing reading. Not only are young people less likely to vote but they are also less likely to join a mainstream political party. Of the main British political parties only one member in 20 is under 25. Until the 1997 election the average age of Labour Party members was 48 and 62 for Conservative Party members (BYC, 1995). Survey studies also reveal that, compared with older people, young people are even less likely to engage in political activities which involve significant informational or other costs (e.g. attending political meetings, lobbying, standing for office) (e.g. Parry et al., 1992).
A host of survey studies also demonstrate the cumulative impact of other social and demographic factors (e.g. income, social class, education, gender) upon patterns of political participation. Univariate analysis of the MORI data confirms systematic variations in political activity according to employment status, personal income and social class. It is therefore necessary to explore these relationships simultaneously in order to assess the extent to which variation in political participation is due to age itself rather than to other related factors.
Methodology
In 1996 the MORI Omnibus Survey interviewed a nationally representative quota sample of 1034 adults, generating information about respondents’ political behaviour in the previous two years.³ It was possible to construct a scale of political activity which measured whether respondents had:
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presented views to a local councillor or MP
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urged someone outside the family to vote
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urged others to get in touch with a local councillor or MP
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taken an active part in a political campaign
These items produce a reasonably reliable index of political engagement. Although Cronbach’s Coefficient Alpha is rather modest (0.51) the reliability of this index could not be improved by excluding any of these indicators. This rather low Alpha score partly reflects the limited number of variables under investigation here.
The social-demographic structure of political involvement as measured by this scale was explored initially using standard univariate measures of correlation. Logistic regression was then used to estimate the independent effect of each explanatory variable on political involvement, thus isolating the independent effect of age differences upon political participation. Ordinal logistic regression enables us to investigate non-parametric outcome variables that form natural hierarchies within a multivariate context.
Results
As expected the data revealed a clear correlation between age and political participation. Young people, and to a lesser extent the elderly, were far less politically active than respondents in the 31-59 age range. Whilst 22% of those aged 46-59 reported participation in two or more activities just 5% of 15-21 year olds did so (Figure 1).
TO SEE FIGURE 1 PLEASE CLICK HERE
These findings are especially significant given the very limited scale of political participation amongst the sample as a whole. Although some of these activities required little investment of time and effort, 60% of the sample were entirely politically inactive. Just 4% of the sample had taken an active part in a political campaign.
Analysis also showed clear and significant variations in political activity according to employment status, income and social class. Age effects might thus be explained by social differences in age structure which are also established correlates of political activity. Respondents who were unemployed or economically unclassified were least likely to be politically active with only 7% responding positively to two or more items compared with 18% of those in work. Similarly respondents living on low incomes were much less likely to be politically active than respondents on average or above average incomes. Whilst 25% of those with incomes above £13,500 per year had participated in two or more political activities only 8% of those with incomes of less than £6,500 per year had done so. Respondents drawn from social class E were also least politically active with only 7% having participated in two or more political activities compared with 29% of respondents drawn from social class AB.
An ordinal logistic regression analysis was performed upon those variables identified by univariate measures as statistically significant predictors of political activity (Table 1). The first column of Table 1 presents the explanatory variables used in the analysis. The second column shows the odds ratios (exp.[b ]) which indicate the likelihood of political activity for each explanatory variable. The third column gives the 95% confidence interval for each variable, indicating the range of plausible odds ratios at the 0.05 level of significance. Statistical significance (p) for each variable is shown in column four.
TO SEE TABLE 1 PLEASE CLICK HERE
This analysis reveals age to be strongly associated with the likelihood of political activity even when income and social class differences are taken into account, thus confirming the age-related pattern of political participation found in earlier studies. For respondents aged 30 or less age is a especially significant predictor of political activity (p<.01). The most politically active age group, respondents aged 46 to 59, are more than twice as likely (2.15 to 1) to be politically active as those aged between 22 and 30 and nearly four times as likely (3.98 to 1) to be politically active as young people aged 15 to 21. The significance of these findings is further amplified when we consider the combined impact of age and income differences. Income is a significant predictor of political activity with each income group being 9% more likely to be politically active than the next highest group (p<.01). Those respondents living on more than £20,500 per year are thus 27% more likely (1.27 to 1) to be politically active than respondents living on less than £7,500 per year.
Discussion
These data indicate that age remains amongst the most powerful predictors of involvement in conventional politics in Britain. They also confirm the cumulative effects of disadvantages of age, social class and income in structuring patterns of political involvement. These findings are especially significant given the increasingly precarious predicament of many young people. Research has increasingly drawn attention to the consequences of the growing economic marginalisation of youth in terms of their access to social rights of citizenship. In view of economic and social policy developments during the 1980s and 1990s we might argue that this group has most to gain from political engagement. However the predominant political response of those excluded from access to a secure livelihood has largely been one of political apathy and withdrawal, at least with regard to conventional politics (see e.g. McRae, 1987; Breakwell, 1986).
Central to the government’s strategy for encouraging young people’s involvement in political life is an emphasis upon citizenship education which seeks to nurture "the knowledge, skills and values relevant to the nature and practices of participative democracy" (QCA, 1998: 40). Implicit within this approach is an assumption that young people’s non-participation is largely explicable in terms of their own political ignorance. If we are concerned with encouraging participation extending beyond voting then it is important that young people are empowered to act effectively in political contexts. However, it is unlikely that this approach will succeed in broadening involvement without a wider consideration of both the social and economic circumstances of young people and the limitations of formal political structures themselves. Young people’s lack of political competency does not, for example, explain their non-participation in those political activities such as voting which imply few significant political skills. Nor is it convincing given the widespread and resourceful involvement of young people in non-conventional protest movements.
In addition to the skills, knowledges and abilities which they require, involvement in relatively intense forms of political activity (e.g. campaigning, attending meetings, standing for office) also reflects the influence of age-related patterns of access to those individual and group-based social and material resources which facilitate participation. Where opportunity costs of involvement are high (e.g. with regard to membership, getting to and from meetings, direct requests for money, socialising, and keeping up to date) the obligations of involvement will obviously be more onerous for economically marginal groups (Ward, 1986). These barriers to participation have been extensively reviewed within feminist and poverty research and many of these insights are equally applicable to the investigation of young people’s political citizenship (see e.g. Lister, 1990, 1997; Ward, 1986). Encouraging young people’s social and political participation thus involves a commitment to combating those processes of economic exclusion which have blighted youth transitions since the early 1980s.
Of equal importance with economic assets are the social resources that facilitate political involvement. Access to politically significant social and cultural resources (e.g. education, interest group memberships, social and professional contacts) also structure people’s orientations to political action. Partly as a consequence of their position of dependence and subordination within the life-cycle, young people, and especially disadvantaged young people, are unlikely to benefit from the types of social and professional connections, or to participate in the types of organised civil associations, which facilitate sustained or intense involvement in formal politics.
However it is evident that even in terms of relatively passive forms of participation such as voting, where opportunity costs are low, young people are substantially under-represented. Academic and more anecdotal evidence both point to widespread feelings of political apathy, powerlessness and an underlying cynicism about politics amongst young people (see e.g. Park, 1996; Wilkinson and Mulgan, 1995; Banks et al., 1992). In view of this, young people’s non-participation may simply reflect a fairly realistic assessment of the inefficacy of conventional politics in addressing the problems young people face.
Conclusion
Encouraging greater participation thus requires us to take seriously the political views of young people, and to address the difficult question of how formal political structures may be made more accessible to those groups currently marginalised by the political process. As Lister (1997) argues in relation to encouraging women’s political participation, a genuinely inclusive formal politics requires the development of new forms of democracy. It is thus necessary both to open up avenues for young people’s participation in formal politics, and perhaps even more importantly to develop means of articulating formal politics with those informal, non-conventional forms of political engagement which most young people will continue to favour. In his speech to the Citizenship Foundation the Lord Chancellor emphasised the current administration’s commitment to providing "genuine opportunities for citizens - especially young people - to gain experience using the skills they need to be real practising democrats". These goals are to be achieved partly through "the modernisation of our political system so that power is returned to the people" (Irvine, 1998). If these commitments are to be more than rhetorical these reforms must be radically extended and implemented as a matter of urgency.
1. The data presented here are drawn from a nationally representative quota sample of the population aged 15 and over by Market and Opinion Research International (MORI). The total number of achieved interviews was 1034, obtained from 170 sampling points in Britain between 6th and 9th September 1996.
2. I am indebted to Dave Gordon for his advice on the analysis of data presented here and for many helpful comments on earlier drafts of this paper.
3. Copyright Ó Market and Opinion Research International, 1996
REFERENCES
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QCA (Qualifications and Curriculum Agency) (1998), Final Report Of The Advisory Group On Citizenship Education And The Teaching Of Democracy In Schools, London: QCA
Ward, S. (1986), ‘Power, Politics and Poverty’, in Golding, P. (ed.), Excluding the Poor , London: CPAG
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Eldin Fahmy
Centre for the
Study of Social Exclusion & Social Justice
School For Policy
Studies
5F2, 8 Priory Rd.
Bristol BS8 1TZ
E-mail:
eldin.fahmy@bris.ac.uk
